Monday, July 03, 2006
Everyone else has an opinion about the 2005 Bordeaux, why shouldn't I?
I haven't updated in a while, but I have some drinking to do tonight, so I'll try to post on that in a couple of days. Meanwhile, the trendy thing to do seems to be to complain about the feeding frenzy over the 2005s, so I might as well do it too.
Short version: I think you'd be crazy to buy these.
Long version: Historically, the prices basically never rise between when they're offered and when the actual bottles hit the market, so you need to have them appreciate 20% or so for it to be worthwhile (if you're that bearish on the dollar, it just has to be better to speculate in the currency directly). You would have done well if you'd bought the first tranche of the 2000s, but if you missed that one, you were better off waiting. The Bordelais learned a lesson from that, as you can see from this season (i.e., gouge early).
I also think it's unwise on general principles to load up on stuff you haven't tried. I, for one, simply refuse to believe that 2005 is so magical that all these properties that produce fine but non-special wines, year in and year out, somehow all turned out to be brilliant. And, with modern methods of production, and better weather prediction, there could easily be a "vintage of the century" 3 times a decade or more, so there's a real risk of both oversupply and "Bordeaux fatigue" in the marketplace. It just has to be better to buy the 1990s, 1996s and some of the 1998s and 2000s, and know what you're getting.
Short version: I think you'd be crazy to buy these.
Long version: Historically, the prices basically never rise between when they're offered and when the actual bottles hit the market, so you need to have them appreciate 20% or so for it to be worthwhile (if you're that bearish on the dollar, it just has to be better to speculate in the currency directly). You would have done well if you'd bought the first tranche of the 2000s, but if you missed that one, you were better off waiting. The Bordelais learned a lesson from that, as you can see from this season (i.e., gouge early).
I also think it's unwise on general principles to load up on stuff you haven't tried. I, for one, simply refuse to believe that 2005 is so magical that all these properties that produce fine but non-special wines, year in and year out, somehow all turned out to be brilliant. And, with modern methods of production, and better weather prediction, there could easily be a "vintage of the century" 3 times a decade or more, so there's a real risk of both oversupply and "Bordeaux fatigue" in the marketplace. It just has to be better to buy the 1990s, 1996s and some of the 1998s and 2000s, and know what you're getting.
